Bias: It's a close call but the 1.0449 resistance does still seem to be the dividing line between bullish & bearish
Please read the attached PDF file which provides more detailed analysis
Daily Outlook
It was a pretty messy day but the 1.0449 resistance has held well. To maintain the bearish structure we now require the 1.0408 corrective low to break to generate a retest of the 1.0331-50 lows. If seen this could generate a limited correction but subsequent follow-through lower should then accelerate losses through 1.0290-00 and to the 1.0250-55 support. Expect a correction from there. This would imply a final move to the 1.0140-67 area.
Only a break above 1.0450 and preferably the 1.0483 pivot resistance would suggest that the decline has been corrective and then we should look for gains back above 1.0500-30 and 1.0560-85 to retest the 1.0625 high. Also note resistance at 1.0660-87 and 1.0713...
Medium Term Outlook
16th August:
A new low at 1.0331 and then a reversal which has failed to overcome the 1.0640 swing high and thus, as we move into a corrective phase elsewhere I see there remains the risk of losses that have chance of testing the original targets at 1.0252 and 1.0140...
Only back above 1.0625-40 would bring earlier relief and the prospect of more sustainable gains.
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